Picture this: you’re running an international business, profits look healthy, your supply chain seems solid, and your product’s gaining ground across continents. Suddenly, a government changes its trade policy overnight. Tariffs double. Six months of meticulous logistics crumble with one news alert. You freeze. What now? If you haven’t thought several moves ahead, your reaction will be delayed and likely expensive. But what if you set the chessboard differently?

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
—Benjamin Franklin

Scenario planning isn’t just a PowerPoint exercise done once a year. I often encourage leaders to treat it like a navigation system, constantly updated for shifting roads. Rather than focusing solely on best-case and worst-case, we map “what if” scenarios for everything from sudden border closures to unexpected election results or new technology bans. Instead of viewing uncertainty as a threat, we try on different political hats. Will a new ally open export channels, or block them? Could stricter regulations make our product obsolete in one region and essential in another? What happens if a local conflict spreads? When I work with teams, we practice these scenarios the way a pilot rehearses flight emergencies—over and over, until the responses are reflex, not guesswork. It’s surprising how often the smallest, oddest scenario uncovers the most crucial weakness.

Now, let’s talk about supply chain resilience. If the last five years taught us anything, it’s that single-source dependency is as risky as building a house on one pillar. Several major multinationals, like Nestlé during recent trade wars, built detailed supply chain maps to flag single-point failures. These maps didn’t just note suppliers; they traced which regions could be hit by tariffs, which port bottlenecks could slow down shipments, and even how labor unrest or weather might disrupt sourcing. The goal? Always have a Plan B and, more importantly, a Plan C. Consider Samsung, which reconfigured its supply network after regional tensions grew in East Asia. They avoided catastrophic shortages by having alternate suppliers on standby in other countries. What if something you depend on becomes unavailable—how fast can you reroute? This isn’t about hoarding inventory; it’s about building flexible options into your system and testing them before disaster strikes.

“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.”
—Malcolm X

Most boards love numbers, but when it comes to assessing risk, local insight trumps spreadsheets. The biggest advantage I’ve seen comes from building real relationships with local experts—not just consultants who fly in quarterly, but genuine intelligence networks: in-country attorneys, former officials, grassroots business leaders, journalists, even taxi drivers. They notice social shifts and regulatory rumors long before any newswire picks it up. In volatile environments, these networks can flag growing movements or crackdowns well before they hit the headlines. I’ve known companies that learned to change their hiring plans or quietly relocate warehouses simply because a local contact gave them a subtle, timely warning. Technology helps, too. Social media listening tools can now spot protest momentum or new regulations bubbling under the surface. The trick is to act on these early warnings, not dismiss them as background noise.

Observed currency shocks in places like Argentina, Turkey, or post-Brexit UK have made another point clear: holding all your eggs in one currency basket is risky business. International companies have started to diversify their holdings, maintaining reserves in multiple currencies, shifting contracts to less volatile units, and sometimes even paying local partners in their home currency to avoid sudden cost spikes. When political events trigger valuation drops, these currency reserves can stabilize operational funding, protect against losses, and keep investments steady while competitors scramble. It sounds technical, but think of it as carrying several kinds of insurance—if one fails, you’re not brought down.

Amid all this complexity, communication might seem mundane, but in practice, it’s one of the most essential tactics. How do you keep investors from panicking, employees from spreading rumors, or customers from jumping ship when conflict disrupts your business? Organizations that perform best under pressure pre-build their communication systems—templates for every conceivable scenario, with designated spokespeople and transparent decision protocols. These aren’t written and forgotten; they’re rehearsed in crisis simulations. Samsung’s experience during trade disputes is illustrative: by quickly updating all stakeholders with straight facts rather than empty reassurances, they built trust even as uncertainty lingered. The companies that fared worst? They hesitated, withheld information, or offered vague platitudes. Prompt, honest communication beats delay every time. Ask yourself: if a major disruption happened tomorrow, would your team know what to say, to whom, and in what order?

Here’s a question I often pose to executive teams: have you ever practiced a full-scale crisis scenario, from the first hint of trouble to final resolution? If not, what’s stopping you from running one next quarter? In postmortems of past disruptions—natural disasters, political unrest, sudden sanctions—the companies that responded 30-50% faster than peers are those whose people weren’t improvising. Their plans weren’t just files on a server; they were muscle memory.

“We do not learn from experience… we learn from reflecting on experience.”
—John Dewey

It’s tempting to think that only the biggest, richest firms can prepare for geopolitical risk, but while scale offers resources, smaller businesses have unique agility. Many aren’t weighed down by bureaucracy and can pivot more rapidly if they’ve prepped well. Even basic steps—such as tapping into government advisories, joining industry partnerships, or subscribing to regional intelligence updates—cost little but offer significant warning time. The best approach I’ve seen from smaller companies involves pooling information with peers in their sector, and assigning one “risk owner” responsible for scenario and continuity planning. Don’t have a compliance department? You probably have someone paying close attention to logistics, HR, or regional sales. That’s your point person.

Measurable payoffs from these risk tactics aren’t just academic. After recent East European and Middle Eastern crises, companies with scenario plans and flexible supply options not only kept the lights on—they actually picked up market share as less prepared competitors struggled with delays and losses. Firms with transparent communication reassured investors, maintained share prices, and avoided reputation hits that took others years to repair. Those holding diverse currency pools stayed liquid longer in turbulent periods, giving them room to negotiate favorable deals while others cut back.

But preparation isn’t a one-off checklist—it’s an ongoing adjustment. Political and economic landscapes shift with dizzying speed. Leaders I work with build routine reviews into quarterly planning: what changed this month? Are new conflicts brewing nearby? Has a new regulation threatened a region where our supplier operates? Do we need to update our contact lists? During a tense year, even weekly pulse checks with local intelligence and supply teams can be justified.

I always ask: does everyone on your leadership team know the top three geopolitical threats to your operation right now? Can they articulate how you’d respond if each scenario happened tomorrow?

“The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.”
—Nelson Mandela

Let’s not gloss over the challenges. Some risks can’t be fully avoided—only buffered. You won’t predict every government feud, military clash, or public protest. Yet, by building scenario frameworks, mapping out supply alternatives, investing in local intelligence, spreading currency exposure, and training communication lines, you can weather almost anything with less damage and more confidence. In this era, businesses that respond fastest and communicate best won’t just survive—they’ll be the ones quietly expanding as uncertainty drives weaker rivals to retreat.

If you haven’t yet, make a routine of asking your team the difficult “what if” questions, inspecting every link in your supply chain, refreshing your local contacts, tracking multiple currencies, and updating communication plans. When the next geopolitical shake-up arrives—and it will—it won’t catch you off guard. Instead, you’ll be ready to act, adapt, and keep the business moving forward. Are you someone who’d rather react or prepare? Which side of the headlines would you choose to be on when the unexpected strikes?